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Canadian Election '08 - the Liberals and Conservatives
Stehpen Harper has requested that Michaelle Jean, our Governor General dissolve the Parliament. According to Harper, it's become dysfunctional and ineffective. On October 14, Canadians will elect our 40th Parliament.
I, like many people, disagree with Harper - in a minority situation things are always going to come a little harder, and Harper's done an admirable job of pretending he has a majority. If this wasn't a bold-faced political maneuver, I don't know what is.
The real reason he's calling an election now, well ahead of the new fixed date, (and in contravention of his own law), is that he wants to cement his mandate before things get any worse. It's a smart move, because what's coming down the pike has very little to do with him, and he's got next to no chance of fixing things. Kind of hard to stand in the way of the developing American recession, and hope that the economic woes of our biggest trading partner don't hurt us. Hard too, for one man to solve the problems of: rising fuel prices, the developing world food crisis, global warming, and the geopolitical instability of the Middle East and Asia (exacerbated by the Americans' bungling of their democracy-exportation).
Harper, being the very smart fellow that he is, wants to sew up a new mandate and this time possibly, maybe, hopefully, a majority, before things go to hell. Canada still has decent growth rates, decent interest rates, decent unemployment rates and one hell of a budgetary surplus, but if all the economic wonks are right, that's going to change soon. When that does, Harper's chances of winning a majority will tank, because at that point, he becomes the Prime Minister who presided over the declining economic fortunes of the Great Not-So-White North, and not the warrior elected to battle such fearsome foes.
The thing is, Canadians don't want an election. All the polls agree: we don't see the point. Not enough has changed since the last election. There's been no scandal big enough to shake up the status quo, no change in the generally disappointing leadership. Unless Stephane Dion screws up royally - definitely possible! - or Stephan Harper knocks it out of the park - also possible - we're all too likely to end up with a Parliament much like this one. Just as 'dysfunctional' and 'ineffective'. The Conservatives might win a majority, but they won't have an easy time trying to make a right turn in the national consensus.* And unlike our neighbors to the south, we don't have a sense of urgency about this election; there's no feeling that when all the votes are counted, things in this country will change forever, for good or ill.
* (I use that term knowing that there kind of isn't one. *g*)
Despite all that, this is an important election. I've decided to do a bunch of posts on the why. Probably no one will read them, but they'll be fun to write. ;)
- Stephane Dion consistently polls below his party. That's not a surprise, considering the Liberal Party of Canada is one of the most successful political machines in the world. It's got superb brand name recognition, even after the sponsorship scandal, which a couple of years on, most Canadians seem to have forgiven. Dion, on the other hand, has his Green Shift and his backpack, neither of which stand up well to Harper's strong man tactics. There's a very real possibility that Dion's leadership won't survive the fall.
Let's cast our minds back to the Lib leadership convention - Dion was the compromise candidate, and won the leadership after that flagging Kennedy campaign threw its support behind him. Ignatieff, Rae and Kennedy all remain viable choices, though none of them have worked hard enough at staying visible on the national stage.
We're still in the long, dark teatime of the Liberal soul, so it'll be interesting to see if this is the election where they finally get their shit together, reorganize from the base to the leadership, and get back some of the seats they lost when the sponsorship scandal came to light. The party continues to poll pathetically in Quebec and hasn't made any significant gains in the rest of the country.
My feeling is that this won't be their election to shine - they still haven't done the hard work of fixing what's wrong with the party. It's business as usual with the Liberals, when they should be culling the old boys club that was responsible for so many of their shenanigans, and trying new strategies.
What they'll probably do, is advertise the brand, and minimize exposure of Dion, who has become their weakest link. It could work, but Dion has to be ready to face some substantial criticism from the Conservatives. I'm already getting pamphlets comparing him to a limp-wristed nancy-boy (ok, implied but very heavily).
- Stephen Harper consistently polls above his party. Canadians like everyone else the world over, seem to like a strong and compelling leader. Even when he abandons the Integrity! and Ethics! he leveraged to get the top spot. The Conservatives continue to be not much more popular than the Liberals, though they've made gains in Quebec and are doing well with their base. Unlike the Liberals, the Conservatives will have to sell themselves based on their leader's brand - the Conservative brand is too new and untested, and frankly, a little too right of most Canadians.
It's always going to be hard to fight centrist-bargainers like the Liberals, and the Conservatives, with their social/fiscal small 'c' conservative bona fides have their work cut out for them. The awkward lovechild of the old Progressive Conservatives and Reform Party, they try to appeal to all conservatives, at the risk of losing particular kinds of conservatives. Stephan Harper is both a fiscal and a social conservative, but he owes much to the Reform Party's small town/religious wing. Right now the social conservatives are ascendant, but their interest in reigniting the culture wars doesn't sell well with big-city fiscal conservatives, ex of the PC.
The party will have to depend on the understandable popularity of their leader. Harper's been a compelling Prime Minister. Clear-headed, confident and seemingly on top of things - a sharp contrast to Paul 'Mr. Dithers' Martin. He's done a fantastic job of selling himself to the Canadian people, and dominating the strong personalities in Parliament. Even firebrand stalwarts seem to lose a little of their luster, when compared to his cool efficiency. The difficulty here is that while he's been solidifying his base, Harper's been running roughshod over too many egos - he's made enemies, and he's given them ammunition. At some point Harper decided that political expediency trumped idealism and principles, and one by one, he abandoned or watered down much of his platform. Even his persona changed. Once the smarter, honest-er alternative to Liberal slipperiness, he's proven himself just as willing to tell political white lies, peddle influence, and do whatever it takes to hold onto power.
There's also the Afghanistan bugaboo. The increasingly unpopular war is supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Only the Bloc Quebecois and New Democrats fully oppose it. Though many Canadians say that want our troops out yesterday, we've made commitments to the Afghan government, and those of our allies. It's a little difficult to discern who's fighting the good fight in Afghanistan, at any given time, but so far at least, we aren't fighting the bad fight. We've been tasked with aiding the government in maintaining order in one of the most dangerous regions of the country, which is why we've seen some casualties. One thing to keep in mind with regard to pulling out, is that no one else wants to go there. Until our time is up, whoever forms the next government of Canada will have to sell our presence in Afghanistan.
(Like a lot of people, my big concern with Afghanistan is oil - what I don't want to see is Canadian soldiers defending oil. That's the deal-breaker for me.)
The Conservatives do have a tremendous advantage though, in the other three national parties. The NDP, Green Party and Bloc Quebecois will all leech voters from Stephane Dion's attempt to unite progressives and leftists behind his Green Shift, and make it that much harder for the already stumbling Liberals to regain their footing.
Next post: NDP, Greens and the Bloc.
I, like many people, disagree with Harper - in a minority situation things are always going to come a little harder, and Harper's done an admirable job of pretending he has a majority. If this wasn't a bold-faced political maneuver, I don't know what is.
The real reason he's calling an election now, well ahead of the new fixed date, (and in contravention of his own law), is that he wants to cement his mandate before things get any worse. It's a smart move, because what's coming down the pike has very little to do with him, and he's got next to no chance of fixing things. Kind of hard to stand in the way of the developing American recession, and hope that the economic woes of our biggest trading partner don't hurt us. Hard too, for one man to solve the problems of: rising fuel prices, the developing world food crisis, global warming, and the geopolitical instability of the Middle East and Asia (exacerbated by the Americans' bungling of their democracy-exportation).
Harper, being the very smart fellow that he is, wants to sew up a new mandate and this time possibly, maybe, hopefully, a majority, before things go to hell. Canada still has decent growth rates, decent interest rates, decent unemployment rates and one hell of a budgetary surplus, but if all the economic wonks are right, that's going to change soon. When that does, Harper's chances of winning a majority will tank, because at that point, he becomes the Prime Minister who presided over the declining economic fortunes of the Great Not-So-White North, and not the warrior elected to battle such fearsome foes.
The thing is, Canadians don't want an election. All the polls agree: we don't see the point. Not enough has changed since the last election. There's been no scandal big enough to shake up the status quo, no change in the generally disappointing leadership. Unless Stephane Dion screws up royally - definitely possible! - or Stephan Harper knocks it out of the park - also possible - we're all too likely to end up with a Parliament much like this one. Just as 'dysfunctional' and 'ineffective'. The Conservatives might win a majority, but they won't have an easy time trying to make a right turn in the national consensus.* And unlike our neighbors to the south, we don't have a sense of urgency about this election; there's no feeling that when all the votes are counted, things in this country will change forever, for good or ill.
* (I use that term knowing that there kind of isn't one. *g*)
Despite all that, this is an important election. I've decided to do a bunch of posts on the why. Probably no one will read them, but they'll be fun to write. ;)
- Stephane Dion consistently polls below his party. That's not a surprise, considering the Liberal Party of Canada is one of the most successful political machines in the world. It's got superb brand name recognition, even after the sponsorship scandal, which a couple of years on, most Canadians seem to have forgiven. Dion, on the other hand, has his Green Shift and his backpack, neither of which stand up well to Harper's strong man tactics. There's a very real possibility that Dion's leadership won't survive the fall.
Let's cast our minds back to the Lib leadership convention - Dion was the compromise candidate, and won the leadership after that flagging Kennedy campaign threw its support behind him. Ignatieff, Rae and Kennedy all remain viable choices, though none of them have worked hard enough at staying visible on the national stage.
We're still in the long, dark teatime of the Liberal soul, so it'll be interesting to see if this is the election where they finally get their shit together, reorganize from the base to the leadership, and get back some of the seats they lost when the sponsorship scandal came to light. The party continues to poll pathetically in Quebec and hasn't made any significant gains in the rest of the country.
My feeling is that this won't be their election to shine - they still haven't done the hard work of fixing what's wrong with the party. It's business as usual with the Liberals, when they should be culling the old boys club that was responsible for so many of their shenanigans, and trying new strategies.
What they'll probably do, is advertise the brand, and minimize exposure of Dion, who has become their weakest link. It could work, but Dion has to be ready to face some substantial criticism from the Conservatives. I'm already getting pamphlets comparing him to a limp-wristed nancy-boy (ok, implied but very heavily).
- Stephen Harper consistently polls above his party. Canadians like everyone else the world over, seem to like a strong and compelling leader. Even when he abandons the Integrity! and Ethics! he leveraged to get the top spot. The Conservatives continue to be not much more popular than the Liberals, though they've made gains in Quebec and are doing well with their base. Unlike the Liberals, the Conservatives will have to sell themselves based on their leader's brand - the Conservative brand is too new and untested, and frankly, a little too right of most Canadians.
It's always going to be hard to fight centrist-bargainers like the Liberals, and the Conservatives, with their social/fiscal small 'c' conservative bona fides have their work cut out for them. The awkward lovechild of the old Progressive Conservatives and Reform Party, they try to appeal to all conservatives, at the risk of losing particular kinds of conservatives. Stephan Harper is both a fiscal and a social conservative, but he owes much to the Reform Party's small town/religious wing. Right now the social conservatives are ascendant, but their interest in reigniting the culture wars doesn't sell well with big-city fiscal conservatives, ex of the PC.
The party will have to depend on the understandable popularity of their leader. Harper's been a compelling Prime Minister. Clear-headed, confident and seemingly on top of things - a sharp contrast to Paul 'Mr. Dithers' Martin. He's done a fantastic job of selling himself to the Canadian people, and dominating the strong personalities in Parliament. Even firebrand stalwarts seem to lose a little of their luster, when compared to his cool efficiency. The difficulty here is that while he's been solidifying his base, Harper's been running roughshod over too many egos - he's made enemies, and he's given them ammunition. At some point Harper decided that political expediency trumped idealism and principles, and one by one, he abandoned or watered down much of his platform. Even his persona changed. Once the smarter, honest-er alternative to Liberal slipperiness, he's proven himself just as willing to tell political white lies, peddle influence, and do whatever it takes to hold onto power.
There's also the Afghanistan bugaboo. The increasingly unpopular war is supported by both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Only the Bloc Quebecois and New Democrats fully oppose it. Though many Canadians say that want our troops out yesterday, we've made commitments to the Afghan government, and those of our allies. It's a little difficult to discern who's fighting the good fight in Afghanistan, at any given time, but so far at least, we aren't fighting the bad fight. We've been tasked with aiding the government in maintaining order in one of the most dangerous regions of the country, which is why we've seen some casualties. One thing to keep in mind with regard to pulling out, is that no one else wants to go there. Until our time is up, whoever forms the next government of Canada will have to sell our presence in Afghanistan.
(Like a lot of people, my big concern with Afghanistan is oil - what I don't want to see is Canadian soldiers defending oil. That's the deal-breaker for me.)
The Conservatives do have a tremendous advantage though, in the other three national parties. The NDP, Green Party and Bloc Quebecois will all leech voters from Stephane Dion's attempt to unite progressives and leftists behind his Green Shift, and make it that much harder for the already stumbling Liberals to regain their footing.
Next post: NDP, Greens and the Bloc.
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